The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center announced a 90 percent confidence level that the United States will experience a very strong El Niño event during 2026. This marks an increase from the 81 percent confidence level reported in the previous month’s outlook.
The CPC releases El Niño outlooks on a monthly basis, evaluating sea surface temperature patterns and atmospheric conditions that drive the phenomenon. A very strong El Niño is defined by sustained warming in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, a pattern that can alter weather patterns across the United States.
According to NOAA, the heightened confidence reflects recent observations that align with model projections for a robust El Niño development. While the agency did not provide specific regional forecasts, historical data show that strong El Niño events often bring wetter conditions to the southern tier of the country, drier conditions to the Pacific Northwest, and milder winters in the northern states.
The updated outlook is intended to assist federal, state, and local agencies in preparing for potential impacts on agriculture, water resources, and emergency management. By tracking the evolving probability each month, the Climate Prediction Center aims to give policymakers and the public timely information.
Stakeholders across sectors are expected to monitor the forecast as the season progresses. The 90 percent confidence level indicates that, based on current data and model consensus, a very strong El Niño is the most likely scenario for the remainder of the year. The NOAA statement underscores the importance of continued observation and preparedness measures as the El Niño develops.
The agency will continue to update its outlooks throughout 2026, with monthly releases that reflect any changes in oceanic and atmospheric conditions. These updates will provide a clearer picture of how the El Niño may influence weather patterns across the United States as the year unfolds.