The Institut de la statistique du Québec (ISQ) released new demographic projections indicating that the island of Montreal will experience a 10% decline in its resident population by the year 2051, a change measured over a 25‑year period.
According to the forecast, the population decrease will unfold gradually, even as expectations for housing demand across the city remain strong. The projection suggests that fewer people will be living on the island while the market for homes continues to grow.
The ISQ’s analysis translates the 10% drop into roughly one‑tenth fewer inhabitants compared with current figures. While the institute did not elaborate on specific drivers, the decline reflects the cumulative impact of demographic trends observed over the past quarter‑century.
Urban planners and housing analysts are now faced with a scenario where a shrinking resident base coincides with sustained pressure for new housing. This divergence may affect decisions on development, zoning, and the allocation of infrastructure resources.
The outlook mirrors broader tendencies seen in several North American municipalities where aging populations and migration patterns reshape overall headcounts. However, the ISQ’s data isolates Montreal, distinguishing its trajectory from that of the surrounding metropolitan region.
Municipal authorities are expected to incorporate the projection into long‑term housing strategies, recognizing that rising demand could strain supply despite the anticipated population loss.
The statistical institute will keep tracking demographic shifts and will update its models as fresh information becomes available, providing a reference point for city officials planning for the next quarter‑century.