A new set of demographic projections released by a statistics group shows Quebec’s total population will shrink by roughly 50,000 people by the year 2029, after which the figure is expected to level out.
The forecast marks a modest decline compared with earlier expectations that the province would continue to grow modestly. The projected loss represents a small percentage of the current population, but it signals the first net decrease in recent decades.
Analysts attribute the upcoming dip primarily to a slowdown in the arrival of temporary immigrants, a segment that has traditionally contributed to Quebec’s growth. With fewer short‑term foreign workers, students and seasonal residents expected to come, the natural increase from births is not sufficient to offset the shortfall.
The statistics group did not provide a detailed breakdown of age groups or regional impacts, but the overall trend suggests that the province will need to adjust planning in areas such as housing, health services and labour market policies. A stable population after 2029 could still present challenges if the age structure continues to age.
Policy makers have previously relied on steady population growth to support economic strategies. The new outlook may prompt a review of immigration targets and integration programs, especially those aimed at temporary residents who often transition to permanent status. Keeping the labour force balanced will be a key consideration for future budgets.
While the projected decline is modest, it underscores the importance of demographic dynamics in shaping Quebec’s long‑term outlook. The stabilization expected after 2029 suggests that the province could maintain its current population level if immigration and other factors remain steady, but any further reduction in temporary inflows could push the trend lower.