A statistics group has projected that Quebec’s population will be about 50,000 smaller by 2029, after which the numbers are expected to level out.
The forecast points to a temporary decline rather than a long‑term downward trend, with the short‑fall linked to a slowdown in the arrival of temporary immigrants who have traditionally contributed to the province’s growth.
According to the projection, the dip will be followed by a period of stability, suggesting that the province’s overall population will cease to shrink once the temporary immigration flow normalizes.
The new demographic outlook replaces earlier expectations of steady growth and highlights the role of migration patterns in shaping Quebec’s future population size.
Policy makers will likely monitor the trend as the temporary dip could affect labor supply in sectors that rely on seasonal or short‑term workers, as well as demand for housing and public services.
While the forecast does not predict a permanent reduction, the interim loss of 50,000 residents may still influence municipal planning and economic projections until the population steadies.
In recent years, Quebec has benefited from a steady stream of temporary migrants, many of whom come for work in construction, tourism and agriculture. The recent slowdown reflects broader changes in immigration policy and global mobility.
If the temporary immigration flow returns to previous levels, the province could see its population maintain the stabilized figure for the remainder of the decade, according to the same statistical model.