A Pallas poll released on Tuesday shows voter intention for the Parti Québécois (PQ) stalled at 22 percent, matching the levels recorded for the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) and the Parti Libéral du Québec (PLQ). The poll was conducted after the first two electoral debates in the province and indicates that the three parties are currently neck‑and‑neck in public support.
The survey results mean that no single party holds a clear lead ahead of the upcoming election. According to political commentator Paul Journet, the parity among the three major parties underscores the competitive nature of the campaign and raises questions about how the issue of a potential referendum might be framed by each side.
Under Quebec's current rules, an absolute majority for the PQ would be required to trigger a referendum on sovereignty. The poll data suggests that the PQ is far from reaching that threshold on its own. However, Journet noted that a coalition with Québec solidaire could modify the requirement, potentially allowing a referendum to be called without an outright PQ majority.
The poll’s timing, immediately after the debates, points to a period of stability in voter preferences. While the debates may have clarified party positions for some voters, the overall intention figures have not shifted dramatically.
Analysts monitoring the race will likely watch for any changes in support as the campaign progresses, particularly if new alliances form or if further debates alter public perception. For now, the Pallas poll indicates a three‑way tie at 22 percent for the PQ, CAQ and PLQ, leaving the referendum question unresolved pending future political developments.