The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center released its seasonal temperature outlook on Sept. 10, 2026, indicating a greater than 90 percent probability that a very strong El Niño will develop during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026‑27. The outlook map highlights the states expected to experience the coldest temperatures and those projected to be the warmest, with the Chicago, Illinois area falling among the regions slated for milder winter conditions.
The forecast reflects the agency’s assessment that a strengthening El Niño pattern in the Pacific Ocean will play a dominant role in shaping temperature trends across the United States for the upcoming season. Historically, a strong El Niño influences the jet stream and storm tracks, often bringing colder air to the northern tier of the country while moderating temperatures farther south.
In the released map, the northern Plains, the Upper Midwest and New England are identified as the most likely to see below‑average winter temperatures, whereas the southern states from Texas to the Gulf Coast are projected to remain above average. Chicago’s placement among the warmer zones suggests that the city could experience a relatively mild winter compared with typical seasonal averages.
The Climate Prediction Center’s seasonal outlooks are produced each year to help government agencies, businesses and the public anticipate weather‑related impacts. By quantifying the likelihood of a very strong El Niño at over 90 percent, NOAA provides a high degree of confidence in the expected pattern, allowing planners to consider potential effects on energy demand, agriculture and transportation.
The forecast does not guarantee specific temperature values but signals a clear trend driven by the anticipated oceanic conditions. Residents and officials in the affected states are encouraged to monitor subsequent updates as the season approaches, as the outlook may be refined with additional data.
Overall, the September outlook underscores the significant role of the Pacific Ocean’s El Niño cycle in shaping the 2026‑27 winter climate across the United States, with Chicago likely to experience milder temperatures relative to the nation’s colder zones.